H1N1 influenza virus causes viral disease, commonly known as swine flu, which mostly affects the respiratory system. Swine flu is characterized by infection from H1N1 strain. Symptoms of H1N1 flu are fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, watery and red eyes, body aches, headache, fatigue, and diarrhea. H1N1 spreads through contact with contaminated air or geographical locations infected with virus. H1N1 infection may worsen other chronic respiratory conditions such as bronchitis, pneumonia, COPD, and sometimes even death due to respiratory failure.

H1N1 vaccine is an important innovation to tackle the H1N1 pandemic since 2009. Initially, the vaccines developed or available were inactivated monovalent vaccines that could prevent infection from most of the strains of H1N1. There are two routes of administration such as intradermal for inactivated vaccine and intranasal for live attenuated vaccine. Both routes shown efficacy profile and are bioequivalent against preventing H1N1 infection. Global H1N1 vaccine market has presence of both multinational pharmaceutical companies and companies from emerging economies.

H1N1 Vaccines Market - Market Dynamics

One of the major factor propelling growth of H1N1 market is increased incidence of disease and episodes of pandemic worldwide from H1N1 infection. According to World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2018, factsheet estimates, 290,000 to 650,000 deaths are reported each year from all types of influenza infection (including Influenza A i.e. H1N1). Each year there are 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness from viral influenza infection globally, according to the same source.

Government initiatives, both internationally and nationally, to tackle H1N1 pandemic would positively impact the market growth. Health institution such as World Health Organization (WHO) have been instrumental in developing vaccines and supporting efficient distribution of the vaccine. After 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza, the U.S. government initiated US$ 3 billion H1N1 vaccine project under which it contracted five major companies to develop vaccine for H1N1 influenza. Under the WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, National Influenza Centers and WHO Collaborating Centers are continuously monitoring the influenza viruses circulating in humans and updates the composition of influenza vaccines twice a year.

Furthermore, rising geriatric population worldwide would be another impetus for growth of the H1N1 vaccine market. Global population is crossing the age of 60 at annual rate of 3% according to 2017 UN report. Increased age, maximizes the risk of various respiratory tract related diseases and immune deficient diseases, thereby the risk for infection due to H1N1 virus rises. Awareness amongst patients about preventive healthcare approaches such as vaccination may lead to higher demand for H1N1 vaccines during forecast period.

However, seasonal nature of occurrence of H1N1 flu has led to meagre revenue for many of the key players. For instance, India-based Serum Institute, which produces intranasal live vaccine to treat swine flu had to destroy stock of 2 million doses in the year 2011 due to lack of demand. In contrast, if pandemic arises suddenly, supply of vaccine may be delayed due to slow production of vaccine, which may negatively affect health of many patients. Due to constant evolving nature of H1N1 virus, vaccine may prove to be ineffective in some parts of the world, which may deter the use of vaccines.

H1N1 Vaccines Market - Regional Insights

On the basis of geography, H1N1 vaccines market is segmented into North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa. North America is expected to lead the H1N1 vaccines market during the forecast period. This is due to increasing government initiatives for prevention of H1N1 infection. U.S. which faced major epidemic in 2009. After this pandemic the U.S. has strengthen the preventive approach to control H1N1 outbreak by implementing vaccination program. According to statistics given by Centre for Disease Control  and Prevention in February 2018, during October 1, 2017 and  February 3, 2018, clinical laboratories tested 666,493 specimens for influenza virus, 124,316 (18.7%) of which tested positive for influenza virus. 84.3% of these tested positive for influenza A.

Furthermore Asia Pacific market is expected to exhibit the highest CAGR due to high prevalence of swine flu and increasing awareness about vaccination against H1N1. According to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, there were 0.1 million cases in India of H1N1 influenza during 2010 to 2017. Continuous changing nature of the virus creates challenges to overcome the H1N1 epidemic. For instance, in 2017 new Michigan strain of H1N1 swine flu virus was first identified in India. Government has played an important role in tackling swine flu by spreading awareness about H1N1 vaccine The Government of India has published guidelines for case management of influenza A/H1N1 which classifies influenza patients into three categories depending on severity. Vaccination was recommended in patient group which are susceptible to H1N1 fever in future.

H1N1 Vaccines Market - Competitive Landscape

Key players present in the H1N1 vaccines market are Medimmune, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Serum Institute of India, Abbott Healthcare, Sanofi Pasture, CSL Biotherapeutics, Sinovac, ID Biomedical Corporation, Cadila Healthcare, and Lupin Ltd.

H1N1 Vaccines Market - Market Taxonomy

On the basis of vaccine type, the global H1N1 vaccines market is segmented into:

  • Inactivated Vaccine
  • Live Attenuated Vaccine

On the basis of route of administration, the global H1N1 vaccines market is segmented into:

  • Injectable Vaccine
  • Intranasal Vaccine

On the basis of distribution channel, the H1N1 vaccines market is segmented into:

  • Retail Pharmacy
  • Hospital Pharmacy
  • Online Pharmacy

On the basis of geography, the H1N1 vaccines market is segmented into:

  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • Middle East
  • Africa

Research Methodology

Coherent Market Insights followsa comprehensive research methodology focused on providing the most precise market analysis. The company leverages a data triangulation model which helps company to gauge the market dynamics and provide accurate estimates. Key components of the research methodologies followed for all our market reports include:

  • Primary Research (Trade Surveys and Experts Interviews)
  • Desk Research
  • Proprietor Data Analytics Model

In addition to this, Coherent Market Insights has access to a wide range of the regional and global reputed paid data bases, which helps the company to figure out the regional and global market trends and dynamics. The company analyses the industry from the 360 Degree Perspective i.e. from the Supply Side and Demand Side which enables us to provide granular details of the entire ecosystem for each study. Finally, a Top-Down approach and Bottom-Up approach is followed to arrive at ultimate research findings.

Data Triangulation Methodology | Coherent Market Insights

Coherent Market Insights desk research is based on a principle set of research techniques:

  • National level desk research: It Includes research analysis of regional players, regional regulatory bodies, regional trade associations, and regional organization.
  • Multinational level desk research: The research team keeps a track of multinational players, global regulatory bodies, global trade associations, and global organization.

Coherent Market Insights has a large amount of in-house repository of industry database. This is leveraged as a burner for initiating a new research study. Key secondary sources include:

  • Governmental bodies, National and international social welfare institutions, and organizations creating economic policies among others.
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  • Company Annual reports, SEC filings, Corporate Presentations, press release, news, and specification sheet of manufacturers, system integrators, brick and mortar - distributors and retailers, and third party online commerce players.
  • Scientific journals, and other technical magazines and whitepapers.

Market Analysis | Coherent Market Insights

Preliminary Data Mining

The raw data is obtained through the secondary findings, in house repositories, and trade surveys. It is then filtered to ensure that the relevant information including industry dynamics, trends, and outlook is retained for further research process.

Data Standardization

Holistic approach is used to ensure that the granular and uncommon parameters are taken into consideration to ensure accurate results. The information from the paid databases are further combined to the raw data in order to standardize it.

Coherent Statistical model

We arrive at our final research findings through simulation models. Coherent Data Analytics Model is a statistical tool that helps company to forecast market estimates. Few of the parameters considered as a part of the statistical model include:

  • Micro-economic indicators
  • Macro-economic indicators
  • Environmental indicators
  • Socio-political indicators
  • Technology indicators

Data Processing

Once the findings are derived from the statistical model, large volume of data is process to confirm accurate research results. Data analytics and processing tools are adopted to process large chunk of collected informative data. In case, a client customizes the study during the process, the research finding till then are benchmarked, and the process for new research requirement is initiated again.

Data Validation

This is the most crucial stage of the research process. Primary Interviews are conducted to validate the data and analysis. This helps in achieving the following purposes:

  • It provides first-hand information on the market dynamics, outlook, and growth parameters.
  • Industry experts validates the estimates which helps the company to cement the on-going research study.
  • Primary research includes online surveys, face-to face interviews, and telephonic interviews.

The primary research is conducted with the ecosystem players including, but not limited to:

  • Raw Material Suppliers
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  • System Integrators
  • Distributors
  • End-users