Future Expectations of EV Market Growth Globally

May, 2024 - by CMI

Future Expectations of EV Market Growth Globally

Did you know that nearly one in five cars sold in 2023 was an electric vehicle? (EV). Almost 14 million new electric vehicles were registered worldwide in 2023, with about ten million being battery powered EVs (BEVs). This represented a 35% year-over-year increase and a market share of 18% according to the International Energy Agency.

Though the curve of EV sales has been healthy and rising over the past decade, there is a mix of expectations for the growth of the global electric vehicle market.

Recent global statistics

The number of electric vehicles sold worldwide in January 2024 was 1.1 million, which is nearly double the number sold in January 2023 at 660,000. In 2023, 9.97 million battery electric vehicles were sold worldwide. With this trend continuing, sales in 2024 (at a projected 1.1 million units per month) will be 31.3% higher than in 2019. After accounting for less than 5% in 2020 and 9% in 2021, the percentage of new cars sold that were electric increased to 14% in 2022. Industry insiders predict that BEVs will take a 17.5% market share in 2024; although Europe is set to wind back many of its incentives due to cost of living and budget crises.

Growing transitions to electric vans and trucks is also spurring growth in the EV sector as “last mile” delivery systems for parcels, perishables, and other goods are similarly seeing upward development.

Winding back incentives: Germany, France, New Zealand

Citing budget austerity, the German government has reduced the €4,500 incentive for electric vehicle sales a full year earlier than planned. The Clean Car Discount Scheme, which provided a rebate for low-emission vehicles, was similarly abolished at the end of 2023 by the New Zealand authorities.

The share of the €7,000 purchaser’s payment is now determined by their car's total environmental footprint in France's restructured EV incentive plan. Vehicles built closer to home will get the entire subsidy, but foreign imports are only eligible for a reduced or negligible benefit.

As China subsidises the production of electric cars to push down prices elsewhere, the European Union is also considering a 10% levy on vehicles made in China.

Bucking the trend: China and the United Kingdom

Two million EVs were sold in China in 2023, making it the undisputed leader in the market (BEVs). In 2024, the predicted sales of electric vehicles (including hybrids and BEVs) are 9.1 million. Just under 60% of all EVs worldwide were registered in China over 2023. China also exported over four million cars last year, of which 1.2 million were EVs.

The United Kingdom’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate came into effect in January of this year, meaning 22% of all new cars marketed to the public must be zero emission variants. As such, 15.2% of all new car registrations in the UK were electric during March 2024, adding another 48,388 to the EV fleet. Despite giving with one hand, the government has taken with the other, halting the Vehicle Excise Duty discount and looking to impose an EU style 10% levy on Chinese made vehicles.