PUMPKIN SPICE MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2024-2031)

The pumpkin spice market is projected to exhibit substantial growth, increasing from US$ 1.1 Billion in 2023 to an estimated US$ 2.4 billion by 2031 this growth is anticipated to be driven by a notable CAGR of 10.2% during the period of 2024–2031.

The pumpkin spice market consists of various products that utilize the warm and comforting flavors of pumpkin, cinnamon, nutmeg, and cloves.

Pumpkin Spice Market Regional Insights:

• North American region, especially the U.S., has dominated the global pumpkin spice market for many years. The popularity of pumpkin spice flavors in America can be traced back to the 1930s, when farmers began developing pumpkin pie filling into a canned food product. Since then, the scent of pumpkin spice has become synonymous with fall in America.
• U.S. has a well-established pumpkin spice industry supply chain, with major players providing pumpkin, cinnamon, nutmeg, ginger, and cloves to flavor manufacturers. These players have cultivated strong relationships with food producers, coffee shops, and retailers across the nation to distribute pumpkin spice products every autumn. As a result, most grocery stores in America stock various pumpkin spice foods and beverages from mid-August through November each year. The versatility of pumpkin spice flavor also allows it to be incorporated into a wide variety of items from baked goods and cereals to soups, creamers, and beers.
• Asia Pacific region has seen impressive growth in the pumpkin spice market. Specifically, India and China are emerging as fast-growing importers of pumpkin spice ingredients and flavored products. There is growing exposure to Western culture and tastes in these countries, which is fueling interest in unique autumnal flavors like pumpkin spice. Additionally, many international food conglomerates have expanded their operations in Asia in recent years and introduced pumpkin spice flavors locally under popular brands.
• Indian and Chinese food companies have also launched their own pumpkin spice products tailored to local palates. For instance, condensed pumpkin spices combined with traditional Indian spices are increasingly seen in snacks. The rising popularity of coffeehouse and cafe culture, as well as exposure to American media and pop culture has further boosted awareness of pumpkin spice in Asia. If current trends hold, Asia Pacific looks set to surpass other regions in terms of pumpkin spice market growth going forward.

Figure 1. Global Pumpkin Spice Market Share (%), by Region, 2024

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Pumpkin spice market Analyst Viewpoint:

The pumpkin spice market continues to show strong growth heading into the fall season. Changing consumer preferences towards limited time flavors and indulgent comfort foods will likely drive another year of gains. Teenagers and young millennials in particular remain the key demographic demanding the latest pumpkin spice innovations.

Retailers large and small have responded with an ever-expanding assortment of pumpkin spice goods. Beverages remain the dominant category, led by pumpkin spice lattes and chilled coffee drinks. Food items such as breads, snacks, and cereals are gaining shelf space as well. International markets in Europe and Asia represent new opportunities as exposure to American autumn traditions spreads.

However, market saturation could emerge as a near-term restraint. With pumpkin spice infused in virtually every fall product category, from air fresheners to dog treats, consumers may start to feel overwhelmed by the overload of options. Retail promotions will be critical to staving off pumpkin spice fatigue. Competition from other autumnal flavors like cinnamon and apple could also siphon off some sales.

Regulations pose challenges as well, as the formulation of genuine pumpkin taste becomes more difficult. Synthetic flavor ants leave an opening for critics to target the category. Suppliers will need to tout the use of real pumpkin or other marketable natural ingredients to head off a backlash.

Pumpkin spice Market Drivers:

Autumn Influence on Consumer Tastes

As the leaves begin to change color and a chill enters the air, thoughts inevitably turn to all things pumpkin. The sights and scents of fall send signals that it's time for pumpkin spice lattes, pumpkin bread, and other pumpkin flavored treats. While pumpkin spice has been enormously popular in recent years, the demand is truly driven by something far deeper: consumers' intrinsic love of the autumnal flavors that pumpkin spice represents. The spices of cinnamon, nutmeg, and clove, which make up the classic pumpkin pie seasoning blend evoke feelings of comfort, warmth, and nostalgia for the fall season. Stepping into a coffee shop amidst the crisp fall air and being greeted by the aroma of pumpkin spice immediately puts one in a cozy, nostalgic state of mind.

Beyond just satisfying a craving, pumpkin spice products allow consumers to feel connected to the changing seasons and rituals of fall, such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and tailgating. Drinking a pumpkin spice latte has almost become a rite of passage to welcome the fall weather. Even for those who don't particularly like pumpkin on its own, the pumpkin spice blend hints at all the comforting associations with the onset of cooler weather. The fall flavors provide an emotional lift that no other seasonal tastes can match. As such, consumers continue seeking out pumpkin spice options not just from coffee shops but in baked goods, snacks, drinks, and more each autumn. The innate human preference for flavors reminiscent of harvest season ensures pumpkin spice will remain a driver of consumer demand year after year.

Comfort and Indulgence in Chilly Weather

While consumers may insist on summery routines during the hot months, cooler weather tends to bring out a desire for rich, comforting indulgences. As temperatures drop and days grow shorter, rewarding oneself with sweet baked goods or a warm beverage becomes even more appealing. Pumpkin spice hits all the right notes when it comes to satisfying this primal craving for warmth and indulgence. With its hints of warming spices, a pumpkin spice latte or pumpkin pancakes provide both psychological and actual warmth from within. The flavors encourage lingering over a treat rather than making a quick coffee stop, fueling the indulgent experience.

Compared to other coffee drinks, adding pumpkin and warming spices transforms an otherwise thin beverage into a cozy sip that pairs perfectly with a good book or conversation by the fire. At home, pumpkin bread or pie, nodding to all the sensory elements of pumpkin spice, lifts lazy Sunday mornings to an even more enjoyable level. Even as appetites wane with more sedentary winter routines, the flavors maintain appeal through their natural richness and ability to feel like a comforting indulgence, regardless of portion size. While price and health concerns may curb other types of indulgences in winter, pumpkin spice satisfies cravings through its versatility and warm seasonal associations. As temperatures drop, consumers will continue seeking pumpkin spice items that bring both flavor and comfort.

Pumpkin spice Market Opportunities:

Product expansion beyond drink

There is significant potential for pumpkin spice product diversification beyond drinks to capture more market share. While pumpkin spice lattes and coffees remain quite popular in the fall season, consumption is typically limited to the months of September through early November. By expanding the pumpkin spice flavor profile into new categories that can be enjoyed year-round, companies have an opportunity to substantially increase revenues and customer exposure to the taste. Snack foods offer one such opportunity: pumpkin spice crackers, chips, popcorn and trail mixes could appeal to consumers looking for a seasonal flavor twist in their snacking. Another promising area is baking goods; pumpkin spice cookies, muffins, cake mixes, and instant oatmeal provide the coziness of fall flavors that customers may crave outside of the traditional months. With more people cooking and baking at home since 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey, incorporating pumpkin spice into homemade meals and snacks could capture growing demand. Personal care items represent yet another avenue for growth. Pumpkin spice scented body washes, lotions, soaps, and candles allow people to experience the comfort of falling outside of food and drink. As stress levels have increased over the past few years according to the American Psychological Association, seasonal self-care products may resonate strongly. By developing pumpkin spice offerings across multiple product categories that span all seasons, companies have an incredible opportunity to significantly broaden a customer base that is clearly excited by the flavor profile.

Rising popularity of organic and clean label products

The demand for cleaner and more eco-friendly products has been steadily growing in recent years. Consumers are increasingly seeking out organic, natural, and clean label options across all product categories. This shift toward more sustainable ingredients presents a major opportunity for the pumpkin spice market to capitalize. Products featuring organic pumpkin, organic spices, and cleaner labels without artificial flavors or preservatives could attract a whole new segment of health-conscious customers.

Moving forward, satisfying this demand for transparent, natural ingredients will be key to the pumpkin spice market’s continued growth and success. Products showcasing organic certifications and simple, recognizable ingredient lists not contain questionable additives or chemical to consumers have a chance of resonating with shoppers. The versatility of pumpkin spice flavors lends itself well to a variety of product types too, like baked goods, cereals, coffees, teas, and more, that could all potentially showcase a cleaner label and organic upgrades. Establishing a line of high-quality organic and naturally-flavored pumpkin spice options could help attract a whole new customer base interested in nutritious and sustainable options.

Pumpkin spice Market Trends

Increasing popularity in clean label and organic pumpkin spice products

The growing demand for organic and clean label foods has significantly impacted the pumpkin spice market in recent years. Consumers are increasingly concerned about avoiding artificial colors, flavors, preservatives, and other chemical additives in their diets. They want products with simple, recognizable ingredients that are natural or organic. This preference for "clean" ingredients is driving up sales of pumpkin spice flavored items that meet these criteria.

Bakeries and food companies are also promoting the organic and clean qualities of their pumpkin spice products. According to the Organic Trade Association's 2022 manufacturer survey, organic pumpkin pie filled the number three spot on the list of bestselling organic bakery items. Companies highlight that their pumpkin pies and breads use organic pumpkin puree with a simple spice blend of cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, and cloves rather than artificial pumpkin flavoring. This clean label positioning has boosted demand for these seasonal offerings.

Overall, the growth of the organic and clean label movement has provided a major opportunity for pumpkin spice products to expand their market and customer base. Brands that offer pumpkin flavors made from minimally processed, additive-free ingredients consistent with consumer values are seeing increased sales and interest as a result. This trend of preferring natural and organic varieties is fundamentally shifting strategies and expectations across the broader pumpkin spice market.

Rising impotence of private label brands

Multichannel marketing has become increasingly important for brands in the pumpkin spice market. With consumers spending more time online and on mobile, companies are integrating pumpkin spice flavors and scents across various marketing channels throughout the year rather than just during the traditional fall season. For example, coffee giant Starbucks released limited-time pumpkin spice cold brew and nitro cold brew coffee drinks in 2020 through their mobile app and website. This allowed customers to enjoy the flavor even during warmer months when purchasing in-store. As a result, coffee sales outside of the typical September-November window saw a notable boost.

In addition, some companies are using lifestyle branding and partnerships to further extend the pumpkin spice theme across multiple consumer touchpoints. Kettle Brand Chips tapped influencers and launched a pumpkin spice flavor chip in partnership with grocery delivery service Instacart in 2022. Through coordinated social media campaigns and exclusive availability on the Instacart platform, the chip saw strong initial sales despite being an uncommon flavor profile for savory snacks. Data from Instacart shows purchases of both the chips and other pumpkin spice grocery items grew significantly as customers embraced the fall favorite beyond just sweet baked goods and coffee beverages.

Pumpkin spice Market Restraints:

Seasonality of Pumpkin Spice Products Acts

One key restraint for the pumpkin spice market is its highly seasonal nature. While demand grows rapidly starting in early fall, it typically drops off sharply after Thanksgiving. The small fall season window when most pumpkin spice foods and drinks are consumed limits the overall annual market potential. Food companies can only meaningfully market and sell these products from late August to mid-November. Outside of these few months, the pumpkin spice category nearly disappears from store shelves and promotional efforts by brands.

This bust after the seasonal boom poses challenges. Food and beverage companies have to ramp up production significantly for just a 2-3 month period. Extra costs are incurred to store, package, and distribute large volumes of inventory to match the fall demand spike. If left with leftovers post-season, they result in losses. Smaller seasonal windows also make it difficult for companies to recover investments in product and marketing campaigns over a longer period of time through sustained sales. It therefore acts as a natural restraint on how much the total market can grow year-over-year.

Higher Ingredient and Production Costs 

The unique blend of warming spices like cinnamon, nutmeg, ginger, clove, and allspice that make up pumpkin pie spice gives the signature pumpkin flavor profile. However, these spices are subject to price volatility due to various factors, like weather conditions impacting crop harvests, trade policies, and supply chain disruptions. The prices of these core pumpkin spice ingredients have risen significantly in recent years. Cinnamon, in particular, has seen steep price inflation.

Higher input costs pose a restraint for food and beverage companies. They have to balance maintaining product margins while not increasing retail pricing too much and losing customer demand. Pricing pressures limit how much companies are able to invest in expanding product lines, marketing initiatives, new geographies, and other growth activities. Smaller players may find it difficult to absorb input cost rises and get squeezed out. The production processes required to precisely capture the elusive pumpkin spice combination of spices also add to manufacturing expenses. Overall, higher input and production costs somewhat restrain how quickly companies

Counter Balance: Pumpkin spice is a popular spice blend used in various food and beverage products, especially during the fall season. It typically contains cinnamon, nutmeg, ginger, and allspice, scale up and the pumpkin spice industry can grow overall.

Recent Developments:

The popularity of pumpkin spice products is fueled by seasonal and holiday trends, with consumers drawn to the warmth and comfort of pumpkin spice products during the fall season and the holiday season.

In 2022, 204 pumpkin-flavored items hit the menus of major foodservice chains, Datassential reported in its 2023 Midyear Trend Report. However, that marked a 1% decrease on menus. Rising on menus and retail shelves are fall flavors like apple, blood orange, spicy flavors and candy flavors, the report noted.

Figure 2. Global Pumpkin Spice Market Share (%), by Type, 2024

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Top Companies in the Pumpkin Spice Market:

• Starbucks
• Mc Cormick
• Great Value
• Glade
• Dukin
• Entenmanns
• Freshness Guaranteed

Definition: The pumpkin spice market refers to the industry that produces and sells products that contain pumpkin spice flavoring, which is a blend of cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves, and sometimes ginger. The market includes a wide range of products, such as coffee, tea, baked goods, candles, air fresheners, and even deodorant.