Study states that suppression strategies will need to be maintained in some way until vaccines are developed to avoid any further spread of COVID-19.
According to a study conducted by the Imperial College London, UK and published on March 26, 2020, the number of deaths around the world due to COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease) could reach 1.8 million even if stringent and swift measures are adopted to stop this pandemic. Researchers suggest that if the government acts fast on taking strict measures regarding public healthcare such as comprehensive social distancing, testing, and quarantining, millions of lives could be saved. The World Health Organization (WHO) figures indicate that the global infection rate of the virus is around 500,000, including over 22,000 deaths.
The modeling simulations by which Imperial College London estimated the number of deaths are based on data on estimated mortality rate and contagiousness of the coronavirus, including societal factors and global demographics. The study also estimated that around 40 million people could die from COVID-19 and almost everyone would be infected if left unchecked for COVID-19. The study examined varying levels of response measures that are currently implemented in some of the worst-affected nations and estimated potential health effects in around 202 nations.
The report stated that if strict containment measures were imposed later, the number of estimated deaths would be around 10.45 million and around 2.4 billion people can become infected. The report also stated that the level of mortality and demand for healthcare was based on Chinese data and countries of high income. The report noted that differences in healthcare systems could also result in different structure in poor countries. Researchers said that the mapped modeling that projected the number of deaths for containment strategies and the pandemic is based on countries that were affected early by the virus outbreak.