KIDNEY TRANSPLANT MARKET ANALYSIS

Kidney Transplant Market Size and Trends

The kidney transplant market is estimated to be valued at USD 9.52 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 12.91 billion by 2031, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2031.

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Kidney Transplant Market Trend

The demand for kidney transplant is expected to increase significantly during the forecast period. This is attributed to the rising prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) across the world. Additionally, technological advancements in transplant procedures such as laparoscopic and robotic-assisted kidney transplants are gaining popularity among both patients and surgeons. This is owing to benefits such as lesser post-surgery pain, faster recovery time, and fewer complications associated with open surgeries. Moreover, increasing public-private investments to create awareness about organ donation and various transplant programs are further expected to drive the market growth during the forecast period. However, high cost associated with overall transplant procedure and immunosuppressant drugs for lifetime may hinder the growth of this market to some extent.

Increasing Prevalence of Kidney Diseases

The increasing prevalence of various kidney diseases across the globe is a key driver fueling the growth of the kidney transplant market. Kidney diseases have become a major public health problem affecting millions of people worldwide. The rising incidence of chronic conditions such as diabetes and hypertension, coupled with growing geriatric population has significantly contributed to the increasing burden of kidney failure globally. As per statistical estimates, over 2 million people suffer from end-stage kidney disease each year requiring renal replacement therapy in the form of dialysis or kidney transplantation to stay alive. While dialysis offers a lifeline for patients suffering from kidney failure, kidney transplantation is considered the best treatment option as it restores near normal kidney function and improves quality of life. However, shortage of organ donors poses a major challenge. As a result, the number of patients requiring kidney transplantation is growing faster than the availability of donor organs, putting enormous pressure on the global kidney transplant market. For instance, on April 17, 2024, according to data by MJH Life Sciences, the consensus statement emphasizes the global prevalence of kidney disease, surpassing other non-communicable diseases prioritized by the WHO such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. The mortality rates for kidney disease are rising alarmingly, with deaths expected to increase by 100% between 2016 and 2040. According to Mrs.Masaomi Nangaku, president of the International Society of Nephrology, kidney disease currently ranks as the third fastest-growing cause of death worldwide, with deaths increasing by 50% from 2000 to 2019.

Market Concentration and Competitive Landscape

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Rising Health Expenditure and Improving Access to Care

Another important driver for the kidney transplant market is the overall increase in health expenditure globally. Rising disposable incomes, growing focus on healthcare as a priority, increasing medical insurance penetration, and better access to healthcare facilities have collectively enabled more patients to afford and qualify for expensive procedures such as kidney transplantation. In developed nations, the overall rise in per capita healthcare spending supports ongoing technological advancements and innovations to improve success rates of organ transplantation. At the same time, developing markets which account for the majority of the disease burden are witnessing increased expenditures on complex transplant surgeries. This is primarily attributed to the extensive primary market research over time by governments and private organizations to elevate standards of medical care and make healthcare affordable for greater population. Consequently, more patients worldwide now have access to various stages of kidney transplantation including pre-transplant evaluation, immunosuppressive therapy post transplantation and long-term medical management- ultimately driving higher demand for related services, devices and drugs.

For instance, on May 25, 2024, AstraZeneca's modeling suggests significant cost savings for health systems in four European countries through early CKD screening and treatment. This could prevent numerous heart attacks, heart failure hospitalizations, and strokes. Studies presented at the ERA Congress support the benefits of targeted screening and guideline-directed treatment, showing potential clinical benefits and cost savings. Real-world evidence from the DISCOVER CKD study reinforces the importance of early treatment, while survey data from the PaCE CKD trial highlights the burden of CKD on patients and caregivers. AstraZeneca is advocating for improved CKD policies globally through initiatives like 'Make the Change for Kidney Health.

Key Takeaways of Analyst:

The global kidney transplant market is poised to grow significantly in the coming years. The market is primarily driven by the increasing prevalence of kidney failure and kidney diseases. Other major growth drivers include growing awareness about organ donation and transplantation. Moreover, technological advancements in transplantation procedures are also fueling market expansion.

However, high costs associated with kidney transplant surgeries and lifelong immunosuppressant drugs remain a key restraint to the market's growth. The limited availability of organ donors is another major challenge. Strict regulations regarding organ transplantation in some countries further inhibit the market growth to some extent.

North America currently dominates the global kidney transplant market and is expected to continue its leadership during the forecast period. This can be attributed to the rising incidence of ESRD, favorable reimbursement policies, and presence of highly developed healthcare infrastructure in the region. The Asia Pacific market is likely to witness the fastest growth owing to increasing healthcare expenditure, growing medical tourism, and rising patient pool.

Market Challenges: The shortage of kidney donors

Some key challenges in the kidney transplant market include the shortage of kidney donors. The number of patients needing a kidney transplant far outweighs the number of available organs. There are also ethical issues associated with expanding the donor pool. Another challenge is preventing organ rejection in transplant recipients. Despite improvements in immunosuppression drugs, acute and long-term rejection remain a risk. Financial barriers also exist for many patients who lack adequate health insurance coverage for expensive transplant procedures and lifetime immunosuppression therapy. For instance, In December 2020, according to a study in the Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, researchers found that 493 kidneys with similar quality and donor characteristics as those transplanted in France, where transplant practices are less restricted, could have been used for transplantation in the U.S. The study indicates that the survival rates for these kidneys were 93% at one year, 83% at five years, and 68% at 10 years. This suggests that many kidneys with suitable donors in the U.S. are unnecessarily discarded.

Market Opportunities: Treatment Advancement

The development of more advanced immunosuppression medications may further reduce rejection rates. Expanding living donor programs and incentivizing donations could help close the organ supply gap over time. Medical technology innovations in areas such as organ preservation, organ support devices, and lab-grown organs also hold promise to make more kidneys available and improve.

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Insights By Type: Demand for Living Donor Transplants Drives the Highest Market Share

In terms of type, living donor transplant is expected to contributes the highest share of the market, accounting for 45.10% in 2024 of the market share owing to the strong demand for transplants from living donors. Living donor transplants offer several advantages over deceased donor transplants that increase their demand. Firstly, living donor transplants have superior graft survival rates and kidney function outcomes compared to deceased donor transplants. This is because living donor kidneys are of higher quality as they come from healthy individuals. The living donor’s kidney is also a perfect match for the recipient's tissue type, reducing the chances of rejection.

Insights By Age: Adult Recipients Dominate the Market Due to Higher Disease Burden

In terms of age, adults contributes the highest share of the kidney transplant market, accounting for 80.45% in 2024 of the market share owing to the higher prevalence of kidney diseases among them. Chronic kidney diseases that eventually leads to kidney failure like diabetes, hypertension, and glomerulonephritis are largely seen in adult populations aged above 18 years. Diabetes alone accounts for nearly 50% of newly diagnosed kidney failure cases annually. With advancing age, the cumulative effects of illnesses, infections, and dietary or lifestyle factors gradually damage kidney function over time. The risk of developing renal issues drastically increases after 40 years of age. This poses a serious healthcare challenge as lifespan and life expectancy continue growing globally. The market is witnessing a surge in elderly end-stage renal disease patients above 65 years who are now surgical candidates for kidney transplantation thanks to modern medical care expanding their eligibility. Additionally, as more adults survive into their sixth, seventh or eighth decade, and age-related illnesses like renal cell carcinoma may sometimes require nephrectomies followed by transplant.

Insights By End User: Technological Advancements and Growing Patient Pool Fuel Hospital Adoption

In terms of end user, hospitals & clinics contributes the highest share of the kidney transplant market, accounting for 54.44% in 2024of the market share due to leveraging superior infrastructure for transplants. Hospitals have dedicated renal wards, intensive care units, operating theatres, and post-surgery recovery facilities tailored for transplant patients. Their round-the-clock availability of multi-disciplinary transplant teams including nephrologists, urologists, surgeons, immunologists, and dedicated transplant coordinators allows for efficient patient management at every step. Comprehensive support services such as transplant funding assistance, donor coordination, post-transplant follow-ups, and drug protocols are also most extensively available at hospitals. These integrated services help expedite the transplant process from initial evaluation to long-term allograft monitoring. Hospitals often have agreements with local organ procurement organizations, tissue matching laboratories, and transplant networks as well to handle logistical requirements. Larger hospitals may even perform 10-20 kidney transplants annually through well-oiled processes. 

Regional Insights

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North America has been leading the global kidney transplant market, accounting for over 40.2% in 2024of the total transplants worldwide last year 2023. The region's dominance is attributed to its advanced transplant centers, supportive reimbursement policies, and increasing awareness. The U.S. alone holds a market twice the size of any other country. Key medical device companies in North America invest heavily in research and development, ensuring continuous innovation in immunosuppressants, organ preservation solutions, and diagnostic tools for transplants. The region also imports organs due to a demand-supply imbalance.

However, Asia Pacific has emerged as the fastest-growing market, driven by rising chronic kidney disease incidences, growing incomes, and government initiatives to boost organ donation. China, in particular, has seen a significant increase in transplants due to efforts to enhance local production, change donation rules, and increase affordability. This has attracted global medical technology firms to invest in partnerships and local manufacturing in China, reflecting the region's promising growth prospects.

Market Report Scope

Key Developments

• On 24 April 2024, The National Kidney Registry (NKR) celebrated its 9,000th successful living kidney donor transplant at Hartford Hospital, making it the world's largest kidney paired donation registry. NKR now oversees 25% of all living donor transplants in the US, up from 23% in 2023. They facilitate over 1,000 transplants annually, aided by initiatives like microsites, Donor Connect, and Donor Shield, ensuring support and protection for donors.
• On 8 May 2024, The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), is launching the Increasing Organ Transplant Access (IOTA) Model to improve kidney transplant access, quality of care, and reduce disparities. The model targets transplant hospitals, requiring a minimum of 11 transplants annually over three years. Participating hospitals must develop health equity plans. The proposed rule can be found in the Federal Register, with standard provisions applicable to model participants starting January 1, 2025.
• In February 2022, Bio-Techne Corporation, global developer, manufacturer and supplier of high-quality reagents, analytical instruments have partnered with Thermo Fisher Scientific, global pharmaceutical and biotechnology company to exclusively develop and commercialize the ExoTRU kidney transplant rejection test from Exosome Diagnostics, a Bio-Techne brand. ExoTRU is a non-invasive urine-based liquid biopsy assay that provides essential allograft health information to aid clinicians in managing kidney transplant patients and optimizing care. The assay has the potential to distinguish between T-cell mediated rejection (TCMR) and antibody mediated rejection (ABMR), crucial for improving patient outcomes.
• In April 2021, Sanofi global healthcare and pharmaceutical company has agreed to merge with Kadmon Holdings, Inc biopharmaceutical company acquiring Rezurock (belumosudil), a first-in-class treatment for chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD). This aligns with Sanofi's strategy to expand its General Medicines core assets.

*Definition: The kidney transplant market involves medical services and technologies related to kidney transplantation procedures. It includes services provided by hospitals, surgeons, nephrologists, and other healthcare professionals to transplant kidneys from living or deceased donors to patients with kidney failure. The market also involves immunosuppressant drugs, medical devices, and other products used for long-term care of transplant recipients to help prevent organ rejection.

Market Segmentation

• Type Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2019 - 2031)
  • Living Donor Transplant
  • Paired Kidney Transplant
  • Deceased Donor Transplant
•  By Age Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2019 - 2031)
  • Children
  • Adults
• By End User Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2019 - 2031)
  • Hospitals & Clinics
  • Transplant Centers
  • Academic and Research Institutes
  • Others
• Regional Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2019 - 2031)
  • North America
    • U.S.
    • Canada
  • Latin America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Mexico
    • Rest of Latin America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • U.K.
    • Spain
    • France
    • Italy
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN
    • Rest of Asia Pacific
  • Middle East
    • GCC Countries
    • Israel
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • North Africa
    • Central Africa
• Key Players Insights
  • Sanofi
  • Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc.
  • Pfizer, Inc.
  • Novartis AG
  • B. Braun Melsungen AG
  • Fresenius Medical Care
  • Medtronic
  • Preservation Solution Inc.
  • TransMedics, Inc.
  • Organ Recovery Systems
  • Transonic Systems Inc.
  • CareDx
  • DaVita Kidney Care
  • ZONAL TRANSPLANT CO-ORDINATION CENTRE
  • Histogen
  • F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.
  • Astellas Pharma, Inc.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
  • OrganOx Limited
  • Terumo Corporation