AUTOPILOT SYSTEM MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2023 - 2030)

The global autopilot system market size was valued at US$ 4.09 bn in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 6.78 bn by 2030, grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% from 2023 to 2030.

Autopilot systems refer to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that can automatically control and navigate a vehicle with limited or no driver input. The rising demand for automated safety features, stringent vehicle safety regulations, and advancements in technologies like AI (Artificial Intelligence) and computer vision are key factors driving the growth of the autopilot system market.

By aircraft type, the commercial segment accounted for the largest share of the autopilot system market in 2022. The incorporation of autopilot systems into the commercial sector has profoundly reshaped several industries, especially in the fields of aviation and transportation. Within commercial aviation, these systems are instrumental in bolstering safety by aiding pilots during challenging weather situations and minimizing human mistakes.

Autopilot System Market Regional Insights

• The Asia Pacific market is expected to be the largest market for autopilot system, accounting for over 33% of the market share in 2023. The growth of the market is attributed to increasing disposable incomes and vehicle production in countries like China, Japan, and South Korea.
• North America is expected to be the second-largest market for autopilot system during the forecast period, accounting for over 24% of the market share in 2023. The growth of the market in North America is attributed to the early adoption of advanced automotive technologies and presence of major players in the region.
• The Europe market is expected to be the fastest-growing market for autopilot system, with a CAGR of over 19% during the forecast period. The growth of the market in Europe is attributed to stringent safety regulations and government initiatives to promote autonomous driving.

Figure 1. Global Autopilot System Market Share (%), by Region, 2023

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Autopilot System Market: Analyst’s Viewpoint

The autopilot system market is poised to grow significantly over the next decade, driven by the increasing demand for automation and advanced driver-assistance systems in commercial vehicles and aircraft. The rising demand for enhanced safety and comfort features is a major growth driver as autopilot systems take over some critical vehicle functions and provide convenience to drivers and pilots. North America and Europe currently dominate the market owing to stringent safety regulations and increasing aircraft and vehicle deliveries in these regions. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to witness the fastest growth and emerge as a major market owing to rising aircraft procurement and a rapidly expanding automotive industry in China and India.

Although rising aircraft and vehicle production will boost demand, the substantial research and development investments needed to create technologically advanced systems present a hurdle for suppliers. Stringent testing and certification standards also increase costs. Lack of supporting infrastructure can also initially restrain growth in developing nations. However, growing investments in developing technologies such as autonomous vehicles and UAVs (unmanned-aircraft vehicle system) are likely to open more opportunities. Additionally, with advancements in connectivity and AI, the role of autopilot systems is expected to grow beyond basic navigation, assisting pilots and drivers. If regulatory barriers are addressed, emerging applications such as autonomous cargo aircraft and long-haul trucks can boost the market significantly over the long term.

• Autopilot System Market Drivers well-known Autopilot system makes use of camera, radar, and ultrasonic sensors combined with computer vision, GPS, and connectivity to deliver features like auto lane change, summon, and auto park.
• Advancements in artificial intelligence and computing power: The autopilot system relies heavily on AI and deep neural networks to perceive and understand the environment. Progress in artificial intelligence, supported by increased data and computing capacity, has enabled breakthroughs in computer vision, decision-making, and motion planning that are crucial to self-driving capabilities. The ability to capture, process, and derive insights from large volumes of driving data is a key driver.
• Safer and efficient mobility: According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 94% of severe errors and can potentially reduce road accidents significantly. Further benefits like reduced congestion, emissions, and the ability to free up driving time also make a compelling case for self-crashes are due to human error. Autopilot systems minimize human -driving technology. The promise of safer, cleaner, and more convenient mobility remains a key factor in attracting investments and encouraging adoption.

Autopilot System Market Opportunities:

• Robotaxis and shared mobility: Autonomous vehicles are expected to enable new mobility-as-a-service business models. The potential to operate affordable, on-demand driverless taxi fleets provides huge revenue opportunities and cost savings for operators. Companies like Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, and Motional are already testing and gearing up to commercialize robotaxi services in urban areas, unlocking new first- and last-mile connectivity.
• Logistics automation: Autopilot trucks have the potential to transform supply chain operations by enabling 24/7 autonomous deliveries, increased asset utilization, and lower operating costs. Startups like TuSimple, Embark, and Plus are collaborating with shipping companies to develop self-driving trucks. Automated last-mile delivery using low-speed autonomous vehicles provides additional opportunities in logistics.
• New markets and use cases: Autopilot technology opens up robotics capabilities in new sectors like mining, agriculture, construction, security surveillance, etc. Autonomous mobile robots and vehicles are being developed for structured environments like warehouses, factories, and airports that were previously manually operated. New applications like autonomous parking, highway piloting, and driverless tractors represent growth avenues.
• Data monetization: The terabytes of driving data collected from the on-road fleet provide opportunities to monetize through licensing to third-parties. Sensor data around pedestrian behavior, traffic patterns, and road conditions provides insights for municipalities, infrastructure providers, and mapping companies that can be licensed or analyzed for revenue generation. For instance, in January 2023, McKinsey & Company is a worldwide management consulting firm, projected that by 2035, the revenue generated from autonomous driving could range between US$300 billion and US$400 billion.

Autopilot System Market Trends:

• Industry consolidation through partnerships and M&A: Developing autopilot technology requires huge investments and convergence of capabilities in sensors, software, data annotation, and validation. This has led to partnerships between automakers, tech companies, chip makers, and sensor providers to combine strengths. Acquisitions of self-driving startups by corporations have also gained momentum to accelerate technology development, testing, and commercialization.
• Progress in sensor technologies: Advancements in LiDAR, radar, cameras, and ultrasonics are enabling more accurate environment perception and object detection. Companies are shifting from bulky mechanical LiDARs to low-cost solid-state LiDARs. Radar and cameras with higher resolution, fps, and focal capabilities are being adopted. This is expanding the envelope of operational design domains.
• Enhanced connectivity and ecosystems: The enhanced connectivity and ecosystems trend is having a significant influence on the development of the autopilot system market. As vehicles are increasingly connected to each other and to surrounding infrastructure via technologies like vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication, it is opening up new possibilities for advanced driver assistance systems and autonomy. This improved connectivity allows vehicles to have a more holistic view of the driving environment beyond just the sensors on the vehicle itself. Through V2X, an autonomous vehicle can receive real-time information from other vehicles about road conditions, construction zones, accidents, or obstacles ahead to optimize route planning and driver responses accordingly. Such connectivity enhances situation awareness for autonomous driving systems and helps improve safety.
• Public-private partnerships: Governments and policy makers play an important role in funding research, enabling regulatory frameworks, and supporting pilot projects to spur AV advancement. Partnerships like the U.S. DOT AV TEST initiative and DR-UP consortium in Europe are facilitating development of standards and platforms for technologies to be responsibly deployed.

Autopilot System Market Restraints:

• High development costs: Autopilot technology development involves huge upfront investments in R&D, on-road testing, infrastructure, mapping, data annotation, etc. Automakers and tech companies have invested billions over the past decade with minimal returns and delayed timelines, hampering broader OEM adoption beyond premium vehicles. Without scale, costs remain prohibitive.

Counter Balance: the advancements made in autopilot technology can have spillover effects into other areas of innovation and offer competitive advantages, such as improved safety standards, enhanced user experiences, and new revenue streams from ancillary services.

• Long gestation period to commercialization: The path to fully autonomous level 5 driving capability is still progressing slower than anticipated. Technical challenges around handling edge cases, ensuring fail-safes, testing, validating, and enabling regulations could prolong time to commercial availability. This extends ROI (return on investment) realization.

Counter Balance: public and private sector partnerships, advancements in sensor technologies, artificial intelligence algorithms, and data analytics are driving momentum in this direction. While the journey to fully autonomous vehicles may be complex and prolonged, the industry's commitment to innovation, safety, and collaboration underscores optimism for future advancements and ROI realization in the broader spectrum of transportation and mobility solutions.

• Cybersecurity and safety concerns: The potential vulnerability of autopilot systems to hacking presents significant risks and raises liability issues. Incidents such as accidents could undermine consumer trust. Ensuring functional safety through extensive testing across various edge cases is a complex task. Addressing these obstacles is essential for widespread adoption.

Counter Balance: it is essential to view these challenges within the broader context of technological evolution and adaptation. As the industry continues to invest in robust cybersecurity measures and rigorous testing protocols, strides are being made to fortify autopilot systems against potential threats. Collaborative efforts among automakers, tech experts, and regulatory bodies can pave the way for enhanced security standards and protocols.

Recent Developments

New product launches

• In January 2023, Waymo is an autonomous driving technology company, launched its fully autonomous ride-hailing service in Los Angeles, expanding its driverless taxi services outside of Phoenix, Arizona. This is expected to accelerate the adoption of autonomous vehicles for commercial use.
• In November 2022, Mercedes is a luxury and commercial vehicle automotive brand, launched DRIVE PILOT, its Level 3 conditional automated driving system for its new S-Class in Germany. This marked the world’s first approval of Level 3 self-driving system in a production car.
• In October 2022, Volvo Cars is a multinational manufacturer of luxury vehicles, introduced Ride Pilot, its unsupervised autonomous driving feature that will enable hands-free highway driving up to 80 mph. Ride Pilot leverages LiDAR and several cameras to deliver Level 3 capabilities.

Acquisition and partnerships

• In September 2022, Amazon is a multinational technology company focusing on e-commerce, cloud computing, online advertising, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence acquired autonomous driving startup Zoox for $1.3 billion to advance its robotaxi ambitions. The deal provides Amazon access to Zoox’s autonomous vehicle software stack and platforms.
• In July 2022, Sony, a Japanese multinational conglomerate corporation, and Honda, the world's largest manufacturer of two Wheelers, signed an agreement to form a joint venture to develop and sell electric vehicles with Level 3 and higher autonomy. This combines Honda's auto expertise with Sony's sensing and AI technologies.
• In May 2022, Qualcomm, which invents breakthrough technologies that transform how the world connects, computes, and communicates, announced a strategic collaboration with Volkswagen, a German automobile manufacturer, to integrate Snapdragon Ride ADAS and autonomous driving platforms in VW, Audi, and Porsche models. This aims to accelerate commercialization of automated driving technology.

Figure 2. Global Autopilot System Market Share (%), by Aircraft Type, 2023

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Top companies in Autopilot System Market

• Tesla
• Zoox, Inc.
• Waymo LLC
• Argo AI
• Aurora
• Motional, Inc. 
• Pony.ai
• Nuro, Inc.
• Embark
• TuSimple
• Plus
• Inceptio Technology
• WeRide
• Vay
• Phantom Auto
• Ottopia Technologies, Ltd.
• Cognata
• AutonomouStuff (HEXAGON)

Definition: The autopilot system market refers to the industry and technologies focused on developing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving capabilities for vehicles. Autopilot systems use various sensors like cameras, radars, LiDARs, and ultrasonics, along with artificial intelligence software, to enable vehicles to automatically steer, accelerate, brake, and navigate with minimal or no human input.